Pertemuan 11

Purpose and Objectives of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
¥ Evaluate the likelihood of succcess
¥ To estimate contingency reserves
¥ Analyzing using quantitative techniques
¥ Qualitative risk analysis
¥ Quantitative risk analysis estimates the implication of all quantified risks on project objectives
¥ The implementation of overall risk analysis using quantitative methods requires:
– Complete and accurate representation of the project objectives built up from individual project elements, e.g., schedule/cost estimate
– Identifying risks on individual project elements such as schedule activities
– Including generic risks that have a broader effect than individual project elements
– Applying a quantitative method (e.g., monte carlo analysis/decision tree analysis) that incorporates multiple risks simultaneously
¥ Results of the quantitative analysis will be compared to the project plan (baseline or current) to give management an estimate of the overall project risk and will answer important questions
Critical Success Factors for the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
¥ Success in achieving the objectives of quantitative risk analysis depends explicitly on at least the following factors
- Prior risk identification and qualitative risk analysis
- Appropriate project model
- Commitment to collecting high-quality risk data
- Unbiased Data
- Overall project risk derived from individual risks
- Interrelationships between risks in quantitative risk analysis
tools and Techniques for the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
• Tools and techniques
- Comprehensive risk representation
- Risk impact calculation
- Quantitative method appropriate to analyzing uncertainty
- Data gathering tools
- Effective presentation of quantitative analysis results
- Iterative Quantitative risk analysis:
- Information for Response Planning